2009 A-league Final Preview

With the A-league Final on Saturday between Melbourne and Adelaide I thought I might have a go at a preview of the match.

There is a lot of history between these two teams. This will be the sixth finals match that two teams have played against each other. In fact in six finals appearances Melbourne has only ever faced Adelaide, a strange statistic.

It would be fair to say that Melbourne has had Adelaide’s measure this season. In the five meetings this season Melbourne has won every match and although some are saying Adelaide are due it is difficult seeing them completing a upset here.

Melbourne go into this match full of confidence, their 6-0 drubbing of Adelaide over the two legged semi-final has allowed them a week off to recharge the batteries and take care of any niggles that may have existed within the playing group. They go into the match as a team that know if they play to their potential Adelaide stand little chance of stopping them holding aloft the cup.

This is the team I would be expecting to start

--------------Theoklitos----------------
Ryall-----Muscat---Vargas------Kemp
----------------Celeski-----------------
----Pondeljak---------------Ward------
---------------Hernandez--------------
-------Thompson-----Allsopp----------

No surprises here as Ernie settled on this formation in the latter half of the season. It has worked perfectly as Victory’s defence has gelled well, allowing only 4 goals in the last 7 home games. On attack the Victory at home have been almost unstoppable. Winning the last 7 and scoring an impressive 17 goals.

The attack has been much lauded in the media recently and no doubt Thompson, Allsopp and Hernandez deserve the pundits. Carlos Hernandez is clearly the best player in the League currently and his ability to provide the ball to his strike pair would prove a danger to any team. For Adelaide to have any chance on Saturday Paul Reid and Jonas Salley must close him down, if they allow him the space that he has enjoyed on previous occasions this again could turn into a rout.

Probably two decisions by Ernie Merrick have gone unsung in the recent praise of the Victory team. The first is the replacement of Michael Thwaite with Seb Ryall. Ryall has been outstanding since taking up the right back position. His confidence has belied his years and his influence has taken enough pressure off the central pairing that Muscat and Vargas now have effectively shut opposition strikers out of the game.

But the biggest unsung hero of Victory is Billy Celeski. His move to the Defensive Midfield has been a revelation. It is easy to forget that his has effectively pushed out two of Melbourne foreign players in Grant Brebner and Cost Rican international Pupy Lopez. His tackling and distribution from the back has been the major factor in the strength of Victory. Suddenly Hernandez is finding much more space. Pondeljak and Ward are getting forward with more confidence.

On the other side of the park, Adelaide has a lot to prove in this return visit to Telstra Dome. There can be no doubt that some mental scars must still be present from their last visit when Melbourne tore them to pieces in a 4-0 whitewash. It should be noted that it could easily have been even worse such was the terrible performance of the reds that night. Here is the line-up I would be expecting.

--------------------Galekovic------------------------
Mullen---Corthwaite---Ognenovski----Jamieson
--------------Salley--------Reid---------------------
--------------------Barbiero-------------------------
----Dodd--------------------------------Pantelis----
--------------------Cristiano------------------------

Salley’s performance last week and the fact that Vidmar must do something about the space that Hernandez was given last match makes this formation a foregone conclusion. Salley will be tasked with man marking Hernandez which should allow Reid to play a more positive role than he has on previous occasions against the premiers.

With this setup, Adelaide will be a tough nut to crack, I would be expecting them to play a little deeper than on previous occasions in an effort to avoid being caught out by the quick running Thompson and Allsopp. Victory are not known for their ability to score from crosses and if Adelaide can choke up the middle and defuse the Victory counter attack play they will go a long way to winning the match.

Of course to win they must score (unless it goes to penalties) and this has been Adelaide’s real issue. It took a wonder goal from Barbiero last week to get past Queensland and to be honest other than that awesome strike the reds looked again toothless up front.

Both Dodd and Pantelis have not brought the form they displayed early into the season into the finals and both have struggled to not only make an impact but have at times looked tired and uninterested. For Adelaide to win this match both of these players must place pressure on the Melbourne full backs. If Kemp and Ryall are allowed to push forward with ease Adelaide will be in trouble from the start.

In the end it is hard to go past Melbourne here. Pim Verbeek has handed Thompson and Allsopp some added motivation with his recent “hopeless” comments and with the form that Melbourne is in they should get enough chances to punish Adelaide.

Prediction 3-1 to the Victory

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